How Batman beat Captain America

This is for comic movie buffs. Or perhaps economic buffs. Or both.

 

In any case, one of the more remarkable developments in entertainment property in recent years is the gradual takeover of Marvel Comics content and property of the entire entertainment world. More specifically, Marvel Studios creation and expansion of an incredibly lucrative cinematic universe has confounded expectations and rewritten Hollywood rule-books. And its latest addition to the stable, Captain America 2, by expanding the standard Summer season to the beginning of the April and by smashing the April box office gross record, is just adding to the already formidable strength of a studio that released its first movie, Iron Man, in 2008!  

 

Add to the fact that other owners of Marvel cinematic property, Fox (X-Men) and Sony (Spiderman), are also picking up their game, it is obvious that superheroes of the Marvel-kind are going to be dominating our digital consumption for many years to come. All of this, as you might have guessed, is really really bad news for, Marvels long-term competitor, DC/Warner Bros - the owner of Batman and Superman cinematic property.

 

This is also another remarkable reversal of fortunes. In July 2008, Nolans' Dark Knight changed not only the super-hero genre but also changed the entire fiction genre. Campy was out, brooding was back. Forget the movies boxoffice gross (stratospheric at the time, this was pre-Avatar era) - Nolan had melded art and commercial truimph; he had created the ultimate Hollywood wet dream - a movie that makes a billion bucks and can win 10 oscars. DC in the batmobile looked unstoppable.

 

As we know now, the batmobile did stop. Besides being squashed by the Avengers and its off-shoots juggernaut, DC failed to create and/or expand upon Nolans classic. New titles and sequels (Green Lantern, Watchmen, Man of Steel) failed to revitalize and enrichen. Even Bat 3 didnt live up to the hype. 

 

Anyway, fast forward to 2013, and DC has finally another cunning (reboot) plan - the tag team of Batman and Superman will take the local cinema by storm on the 6th of May, 2016. With a significant cast and an equally significant cat-walk of important comic characters (Luthor, Wonder Woman), the sequel for Man of Steel would finally push forward, in a meaningful manner, Warners attempt to create, meld and expand the DC cinematic universe. Unfortunately, Marvel wont do a DC, i.e. roll over and play chaos. And this is where game theory comes in.

Game Theory is "is a study of strategic decision making. Specifically, it is "the study of mathematical models of conflict and cooperation between intelligent rational decision-makers". Game theory is mainly used in economics, political science, and psychology, as well as logic and biology. The subject first addressed zero-sum games, such that one person's gains exactly equal net losses of the other participant(s). Today, however, game theory applies to a wide range of behavioral relations, and has developed into an umbrella term for the logical side of decision science, including both humans and non-humans (e.g. computers)" (Wikipedia entry).

 

In a simplification of the game, our 2 players (Marvel and DC), will choose a strategy that maximizes their respective payoffs. The payoff is maximum box office gross and the strategy revolves around the release schedule for their respective 2016 tentpoles - Man of Steel (DC) and Capt America 3 (Marvel). 

 

A word of about the importance of May to tent poles - it is the gateway to the most lucrative season for Hollywood movies - the summer season. Anywhere between 30-40% of the annual global gross of Hollywood movies is generated in the 3 months of May, June and July. And May first week is often the release date of THE summer tent-pole flick.

 

Hence in the first move of our multi-stage sequential game, DC by opting 6th May 2016 has flagged Man of Steel 2 as THE movie event of the 2016 summer. However, Marvel Studios/Disney wont have any of that.

 

In their move, to maximize its own potential payoff and make a dent in the take of MoS2, Marvel/Disney has set up a direct clash with Superman and friends by announcing ALSO a 6th May 2016 release date for Captain America 3! Lunacy you would say? Why would a studio pit a movie costing USD150-200mn  against a solid franchise (Batman), whose previous 2 releases have outgrossed (in US domestic) every Marvel movie barring the Avengers flick? Simple: Marvel is willing to take a cut in the box-office payoff from Cap 3 release IF it can dampen/dilute/isolate/(even) devastate the thunder of the launch of the DC cinematic universe aka MoS2.

 

And DC gets that. Stage 2 has arrived (which is basically NOW) and its their turn. By opting to leave the release schedule as is, DC would maintain its dominant strategy. However it runs the gamut of loosing face/appeal/shine, IF Cap 3 manages to out-gross MoS2. Everyone expects MoS2 to make more money than Cap3. But what would if it doesnt? It would be a damning verdict for DCs franchise value and probably ensure that their cinematic universe is dead on arrival.

 

However opting to change the schedule ALSO entails massive risk. Firstly is the loss of face (Marvel vs DC); secondly the lost of a lucrative slot; and thirdly, and most importantly, it creates a dominant strategy for Marvel and other studios against any future big-budget movies released by Warner/DC. Explaining the last point further: all competition would have to do against Warner/DC is move movies in direct competition/confrontation and expect the latter to blink.

 

Yes - rock and a very hard place. And DC is the patty.

 

The next move than (and from here its all conjecture): DC will move release of MoS2 TO 5th May 2016 from 6th May 2016.

 

Too simple? It is actually. By just moving it a day ahead, DC captures max possible screens and creates critical space/distance from the Cap3 release. And if MoS2 proves to be a juggernaught (box office, social media, word of mouth), Cap3 would be steamrolled. And the stone would be used to kill the 2nd bird - Marvels growing stature of being bullet-proof.

 

So how would Marvel respond? By taking DCs place between the rock and the very hard place. If Marvel moves schedule from 6th to 5th as well, it would seem petty - there is a thin line behind brave and foolish. And if it doesnt, it would either hope that Cap3 is damn good or MoS2 is damn bad. Either way, there is too much dependence on hope.

 

 Again, so how would Marvel respond? By over time (we have 2 years still to go) quietly announcing a change in dates on pretext of 'film being not ready'.

 

This is my forecast. There is a lot of time and variables to go and things might change outside of the direct face-off. For instance, cinema owners might push the 2 studios to reach compromise. And/or, either of the movies might actually be not ready. And so on.

 

For the time being, though, it seems that Batman is one punch away from knocking out Capt America (and co).